A potentially record-breaking gap between two groups marks one of the most striking elements of preferences in the 2016 presidential race: college-educated white women for Hillary Clinton vs. non-college white men for Donald Trump.
Clinton’s overwhelming support among nonwhites, a growing share of the U.S. population, means that Trump needs a wide margin among whites to win the presidency – Mitt Romney won whites by 20 points but still lost. In that effort, non-college white men are Trump’s greatest strength – and college-educated white women are his greatest headwind.
Trump has a vast 41-point lead, 68-27 percent, among white men without a college degree identified as likely voters in the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll, produced for ABC by Langer Research Associates. The record for a Republican candidate, in exit poll data back to 1980, is Ronald Reagan’s 38-point win in this group in 1984.
Trump’s margins are smaller among white women without a degree (13 points, 55-42 percent) and college-educated white men (7 points, 52-45 percent). The sharply different group is college-educated white women – a remarkable 20-point advantage for Clinton, 58-38 percent among likely voters. Clinton, of course, is herself a college-educated white woman; affinity may be on her side. Her support in this group is well beyond Democratic candidates’ best past performances, +6 in 1992, +7 in 1996, +8 in 2000 and +5 in 2008.
That said, preferences among college-educated white women have varied this election cycle, ranging from +6 to +37 points for Clinton among registered voters in previous polls. Non-college white men have been more consistently for Trump.
As things stand now, white men without a college degree account for 27 percent of Trump’s supporters, vs. 9 percent of Clinton’s; and college educated white women make up 20 percent of Clinton’s supporters, vs. 16 percent of Trump’s. If they hold on Election Day, these gaps would be the biggest on record between major party candidates in exit poll data since 1980.
The general pattern is not new. On average since 1980, Republican presidential candidates have won white men without a college degree by 23 points, white men with a college degree by about the same margin (22 points) and non-college white women by 13 points – but white women with a college degree by just 1 point. Clinton is far ahead of the Democratic average among college-educated white women. Trump is equally far ahead among non-college white men.
These two groups accounted for about equal shares of the electorate in the latest ABC/Post poll, 18 and 17 percent, respectively, among likely voters, similar to their shares in the 2012 exit poll. But the change over time has been strikingly different: White women with a college degree advanced from 11 percent of voters in 1980 to 19 percent in 2012, while non-college white men declined from 31 percent to 17 percent.
Vote preferences in these groups reflect underlying differences in partisanship, attitudes and incomes. Consider:
• Thirty-six percent of college-educated white women identify as Democrats, vs. just 15 percent of non-college white men.
• Fifty-two percent of non-college white men are conservatives, vs. 29 percent of white women with a college degree.
• Forty-four percent of non-college white men have household incomes of less than $50,000 a year, vs. 19 percent of college-educated white women.
College-educated white women are 11 points more likely than non-college white men to say they’re optimistic about the country’s future. Most college-educated white women prefer political experience to an outsider, think Trump goes too far in criticizing others, say Clinton is qualified for the presidency and Trump is not, feel comfortable with the idea of Clinton as president but anxious about Trump and see Clinton, but not Trump, favorably overall. Non-college white men are the opposite on all these.
Clinton’s current advantage among college-educated white women leaves her at +8, 52-44 percent, among college-educated whites overall, compared with Trump’s 60-35 percent among non-college whites. Non-college whites account for 54 percent of Trump’s supporters vs. 26 percent of Clinton’s. The candidates are about even in reliance on white college graduates (35 percent for Trump, 34 percent for Clinton). Nonwhites account for 40 percent of Clinton’s supporters, just 11 percent of Trump’s.
The rise of minorities as a voting group has been well covered, from 10 percent of voters in 1976 to 28 percent in 2012. That’s benefitted Democratic candidates, given their average 59-point margin among nonwhites; minorities accounted for just 16 percent of Jimmy Carter’s supporters in 1976, but 44 percent of Obama’s in 2012.
As the nonwhite share of the electorate grows, winning whites by wide margins is increasingly critical to Republicans. The question for Trump, then, is whether he can turn more college-educated white women to his side – or win enough other whites to get there without them.
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