In spite of early predictions, the race between Hillary Clinton and Sen. Bernie Sanders in California is dramatically close, prompting changes to tactics and speculation over the value of the state's 475 pledged Democratic delegates.
Vince Vasquez, a senior policy analyst at the National University System Institute for Policy Research, said he believes "there's a good chance for a Sanders upset" coming up in California.
"We may actually be witnessing the same electoral conditions here that occurred in Michigan, where Sanders had a surprise victory on election night, mostly due to spotty polling, pollsters underestimating the millennial vote, and Hillary Clinton underestimating the appeal of Sanders," Vasquez told ABC News.
The prospect of a loss for Clinton would be "in a word, embarrassing," Vasquez said.
The state's delegates are divided proportionally so considering Clinton and Sanders are expected to have a close finish, it is unlikely a Sanders’ win will prevent Clinton from secure the number of total delegates needed to clinch the nomination next week. Most likely, both candidates will come out of California with a three-figure delegate pot.
California is one of six states that holds their primary on next week, and Clinton only needs 73 delegates to clinch the party's nomination. Given that voting in New Jersey, a state that will be awarding 142 total Democratic delegates, close first, there's a chance she will pass the threshold before voting in California even closes.
Still, despite the eventual outcome, Sanders may very well have already changed the expectations for Democratic candidates in the Golden State going forward. He has been taking a "retail politics" approach to California even though it’s the most populous state in the country. So far, he’s held over 20 rallies where he’s spoken to over 130,000 people, according to his campaign’s estimates. He previously said his goal was to have 250,000 people attend his events before the primary.
"I’m not sure that has been done in recent history and the reason we’re doing that is I believe in grassroots politics," Sanders said Monday in Oakland. "I believe that the people in California and other places have the right to see the candidate up front, ask questions with a lot of town meetings as well, and find out where he or she is coming from," he told reporters over the weekend.
A possible indication of how closely Clinton's camp is paying attention to Sanders, one of her Super PACs, called "Correct the Record," has continued to send staff and video cameras to keep tabs on Bernie Sanders’ events in the state, and just yesterday Clinton announced that she will be changing her schedule to campaign more in the state.
Vasquez said that Sanders' campaigning schedule has helped him get more media attention beyond the $1.5 million ad buy he announced last week.
"Sanders has been campaigning aggressively here in California with large public rallies; that’s kept him in the local news cycle and generated millions of dollars’ worth of earned media," Vasquez said.
There have been calls from top Democrats, including Sen. Diane Feinstein this weekend, to have Sanders drop out, arguing that he's doing more harm than good for the Democratic party, but one of his camp's biggest arguments in favor of him staying in the race is that he is helping to grow the party by energizing and engaging new voters.
Voter registration estimates appear to back up that claim.
"We’ve had a historic surge in new voter registration since Jan. 1 -- estimates are around 2 million new voters were added to the rolls," Vasquez said specifically of California. "That includes both brand-new voters and those that are re-registering. A large chunk of those voters are millennials, Democratic-leaning, and overall fit the demographic profile of Bernie Sanders supporters."
Clinton has made changes to her campaigning schedule in recent days, adding another event in Oakland on Friday and then cancelling a New Jersey event this coming Thursday in favor of going to California earlier.
The schedule changes come as polling suggests the race in the Golden State has been tightening. The Public Policy Institute of California released a poll last week showing that Clinton was leading Sanders by 2 percentage points, putting the race inside the margin of error. The race has grown closer since the group's most recent poll, released March 24, which had Clinton with a 7-point lead.
A Clinton campaign aide noted that Clinton has won seven of the last 11 primaries and also pointed to the fact that then–Sen. Obama only won three of the final 10 primaries at the end of the race in 2008 - and lost California - but went on to win the nomination handily. In 2008, however, the most populous state in the union voted in February, when the primary was still up in the air.
For his part, Sanders said he's "feeling good" about the Golden State, which holds its primary on June 7.
"We have excellent chance to win here in California, and I believe that we have a chance to perhaps win big."
Bruce Cain, a professor of political science at Stanford University, told ABC News that “it’s not about winning the nomination anymore” for Sanders but about gaining momentum to help his policies when it comes time for the convention.
"They want to move the party from it’s likely centrist direction.... They want to do what they can to prevent [Clinton] from her moving into the middle," Cain said of Sanders’ likely motives.
For Clinton, Cain says it’s more about her perception going forward because “between New Jersey and California, she’s going to be way over what she needs in the delegate count.”
"It means in the short run, there will be continued angst about her performance as a candidate and endless second guessing as to whether the party's made a mistake, by some anyway," Cain said.
When it comes to the general election, Donald Trump may be the biggest factor in helping Clinton and Sanders supporters resolve their differences.
"Time is on Hillary's side and Trump is on Hillary's side in the sense that his continued controversial statements and policy pronouncements will ultimately help to unite the Democratic party because in politics, opposition to the other side is a far more powerful force than agreement," Cain said.
ABC News’ Liz Kreutz contributed to this story.
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