Democrats pin Senate hopes on a Kansan

TOPEKA, Kan. — The Senate race in Kansas may suddenly be the most crucial contest in the country. Republicans are scrambling to protect a longtime incumbent. Bob Dole is back on the campaign trail. The state's Democrats have no candidate and are trying to say as little about that as possible. And a 45-year-old investor from suburban Kansas City may hold the key to control of the Senate next January.

At the beginning of the year, no one thought that Kansas — which has sent only Republicans to the Senate since 1938 — would be critical in determining the balance of the Senate. But a Kansas Supreme Court ruling Thursday that allowed the Democratic nominee to withdraw his name from the ballot made that prospect real.

Democrats are celebrating the ruling. Their candidate may be off the ballot, but his departure benefits the investor, Greg Orman, who is running as an independent, and hurts the longtime Republican incumbent, Sen. Pat Roberts, who had already been tripped up in his expected waltz to re-election.

A major factor in Roberts' troubles has been the unexpected rise of Orman, who has been coy about his intentions if he should be elected, refusing to say if he would caucus with Democrats or Republicans. But his election has the potential of keeping the Senate out of Republican hands in the case of a close split in November.

Even before the ruling Thursday, Roberts, who was first elected to the House in 1980 and is seeking his fourth term in the Senate, had been trailing in the polls. With the Democratic candidate, Chad Taylor, not included in surveys, Roberts' deficit is even larger.

The role of Dole, the former senator from Kansas, in the race illustrates the stakes. The 91-year-old native of Russell, Kansas, has grown increasingly nervous about Roberts' prospects.

He had pleaded with Republican super PACs to shore up the Roberts campaign. He also has been talking strategy with Scott Reed, his onetime presidential campaign manager who is the U.S. Chamber of Commerce's top political strategist.

Dole also offered a number of ideas about the race, like bringing Mitt Romney out to campaign for Roberts.

Roberts' campaign, however, had another suggestion for a surrogate: Dole himself.

As a result, Dole was to tape a television commercial for Roberts on Friday and is joining the senator for a rally Monday night in Dodge City, Kansas, the Old West town that Roberts lists as his official residence but where he does not have a home of his own.

'I think it's going to be quite a close race,' Dole said.

Orman, a former McKinsey consultant who started his own venture capital fund and has financed his own campaign in part, may find his wealth becoming an issue, now that he is the Republicans' sole focus. Republicans are already racing to scour his investments. But the new campaign manager that the national Republican Party installed when they took control of the Roberts campaign this month seemed stressed about whether six weeks would even offer enough time for them to research Orman's many holdings.

Roberts' campaign is already seeking to make an issue of Orman's business relationship with Rajat Gupta, a former Goldman Sachs executive. Gupta is in federal prison after being convicted of insider trading, but he and Orman are both still invested in a wealth management fund.

'I don't think having dealings with somebody who is in prison is going to play well in Kansas,' said Corry Bliss, a Roberts aide.

Orman also made some of his backers cringe this week when he told reporters that the shared investment was 'very modest' because it was under $50,000. (The median income in Kansas is just over $51,000.)

Asked if he would withdraw his money from the fund, Exemplar Wealth Management, Orman said: 'No answer.' An aide later clarified that Orman would not get rid of his stake.

On issues, Orman has offered a series of noncommittal answers on topics like the Keystone XL Pipeline, same-sex marriage and the minimum wage. Republicans are trying to gain traction on the public stands that Orman has taken: He supports a pathway to citizenship for immigrants in the country illegally and tells voters that the Affordable Care Act will not be repealed.

As Orman has gained ground in polls, Roberts has called in help from across the state. Next week, Freedom Partners, a super PAC with ties to Wichita-based Koch Industries, is starting a major advertising assault against Orman that will link him to national Democrats. The group is spending about $500,000 in the first two weeks in a state with relatively inexpensive media markets, said James Davis, a group spokesman.

Roberts' struggles were also prompting two other Republican groups with Kansas ties to prepare ad campaigns.

National Democrats have gone to great lengths to stay out of the race. They do not want to make it easier for Republicans to label Orman as the de facto Democratic nominee in a conservative-leaning state, even though he briefly sought the party's nomination to take on Roberts in 2008.

Senior Kansas Democrats, including former two-term Gov. John Carlin, played a role in persuading their nominee, Taylor, to quit so that it would be easier to defeat Roberts. Their message to Taylor, who had raised little money, was that he could have a bright future in the party if he did not play the spoiler in the race.

'I reviewed with him some of the reality he was facing,' Carlin said.

Taylor himself has not said why he decided to drop out of the race just before the deadline to withdraw, and he avoided reporters at the state court hearings.

On Friday, in a sign of how unpredictable the race has become, Kris Kobach — the Republican secretary of state who sought to keep Taylor on the ballot until the court overruled him — said he would instruct counties to start mailing absentee ballots overseas without the name of a Democratic candidate. But Kobach said they would include a disclaimer stating that a new ballot would be sent if Democrats selected a replacement.

Democrats here have shown no appetite to replace Taylor. In fact, state party officials have already been in contact with Orman's team.

'There are a lot of voters — Republicans, unaffiliateds and Democrats — who are going to be inclined to support somebody who is not part of the establishment,' said Paul Davis, the Democratic nominee for governor, who in a tight race against Gov. Sam Brownback. But Davis hastened to add that he had no plans to endorse Orman.

Would he vote for Orman? 'Well, we'll see,' he said with a smile.

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