True bellwether counties in U.S. presidential elections are hard to find. Elections often depend on turnout in partisan strongholds and on keeping those margins bigger or smaller than the last time around.
Still, some counties can tell us which way the wind is blowing. Either by demographic makeup, or by clear-cut targets based on past results, they can foreshadow what might happen in the rest of the country. In that spirit, here are a few counties worth keeping an eye on as the first results come in tonight for the eastern half of the U.S.
1. Miami-Dade, FL. (8 p.m. ET) Nationwide, it's second only to Los Angeles in total Hispanic population with 581,000 (35.7 percent, according to the Pew Research Center), and as such Miami-Dade could give an early indication of whether we'll see an Hispanic surge tonight in places like Nevada and Colorado. Obama won this county twice with 57 percent in 2008 and 61 percent in 2012 -- so look for Clinton to top the low 60s if that surge materializes.
It could also forecast the winner of Florida--one of two true eastern tossup states, along with North Carolina, that will be critical as the night progresses.
Florida's 24-percent Hispanic population has translated to 15.7 percent of registered voters, per the state's latest statistics, but some of its most important counties have also seen the highest growth in Hispanic registration. Clinton will look for totals in the 60-percent range in Osceola, Polk (I-4 corridor, east of Tampa), Broward (Ft. Lauderdale), and Orange (Orlando), all of which saw the Hispanic registration share grow by 2 to 5 percent since 2012. Sparsely populated Hendry, in central southern Florida, voted 52.3 percent for Romney in 2012 but saw Hispanic registration rise by 5.8 percent. A flip could be a good sign for Clinton.
2. Wake County, NC. (7:30 p.m. ET) Home to Raleigh, it's the biggest county in critical North Carolina, and its demographics will test both Trump's appeal to college-educated suburban voters and Clinton's to African-Americans: Wake is 20.1 percent percent black by registration, and it's the second-most-educated county in the state, with 48.3 percent having college degrees.
Clinton will want to hit the high 50s here to stay competitive, and she held a midnight rally here on the eve of Election Day to that end. Wake broke for Obama in 2008 (57.1 percent) but dropped off in 2012 (54.5 percent) as the president lost the state in his second run. Clinton and Cruz won the primaries here.
Elsewhere in North Carolina, look to tiny, 92.5-percent-white Watauga on the Tennessee border, which has voted for the statewide presidential winner since 1996. Durham will be a good indicator of African-American turnout for Clinton: It's 37 percent African-American by registration, and Clinton will need 76 percent here if she wants to top Obama's 2012 total.
3. Cobb County, GA. (7 p.m. ET) This county in the northwest Atlanta area is one of Georgia's biggest and most-educated counties. It'll be another test of Trump's appeal to college-educated whites. Democrats have dominated the heart of Atlanta (Fulton County), but Romney carried Cobb with 55.5 percent in 2012, and Democrat Michelle Nunn only took 42 percent in Cobb in the 2014 Senate race. Trump will need mid-50s numbers here, and if Clinton makes it close, this could be a canary in the coal mine.
4. Franklin County, OH. (7:30 p.m. ET) Home to Columbus, it gave Mitt Romney the most votes of any Ohio county in 2012 (although Obama won it with 60.1 percent). But Franklin was also the strongest John Kasich county in all of America in the 2016 primaries, per this New York Times map. Kasich took 63.7 percent there, feeding voters a steady diet of anti-Trump cautioning. Franklin might say something about whether Republicans are behind their candidate, and Trump will want to keep Clinton under 60 percent here.
5. Wayne County, MI. (9 p.m. ET) Home to Detroit. If Clinton has an enthusiasm problem in the Democratic base, it could show here. Obama carried it with 74 percent in 2008 and 72.3 percent in 2012, but unemployment has remained relatively high at 6.5 percent in Wayne County, after Michigan was among the states hit hardest by the recession during Obama's presidency. Polls have shown Clinton ahead in Michigan, but Democratic enthusiasm in Detroit could be key. Obama, Hillary Clinton, and Bill Clinton all campaigned in Michigan on Monday, suggesting a campaign that sees Michigan turnout as important to its chances.
RURAL BONUS: The Panhandle. (8 p.m. ET) How fired up is the deep-red base? Santa Rosa, Okaloosa, Washington, Bay: Romney took around 70 percent in these small, panhandle counties in 2012. Will Trump bank extra votes here in 2012? NC's Bernie Country. (7:30 p.m. ET) Western North Carolina felt the Bern. Buncombe County (Asheville) backed Obama (55 percent) against Romney in 2012, but Bernie crushed Clinton in the primary here, taking 62 percent to her 35.4 percent. A loss for Clinton in Buncombe could mean she failed to rally the Demoratic Party's Bernie wing.
from ABC News: Politics http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/counties-country-watch-early-results/story?id=43395413
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