Who turned out in Tuesday's West Virginia Primary and what motivated their votes?
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The following is reportable as “preliminary” exit poll results from the West Virginia Democratic primary. Please note that exit poll results can and do change as additional data come in – sometimes substantially. Check back for updates.
The highest level of economic concern in any Democratic primary this year and greater-than-usual turnout among men, whites, political independents and critics of President Obama characterize the West Virginia Democratic contest in preliminary exit poll results.
Extraordinary economic stress is evident:
• Two-thirds of voters say they’re very worried about the direction of the nation’s economy in the next few years, by far the highest level of economy worry in a Democratic primary this year – far above the average, 40 percent, and rivaling the customary level seen in Republican primaries.
• More than six in 10 call the economy and jobs the most important issue in their vote, again by far the highest in any Democratic contest this year.
• A majority in the state thinks trade with other countries takes away more U.S. jobs than it creates, vs. only a third who says trade creates more jobs. It’s been much closer, 45-39 percent, in previous states where it’s been asked.
Bernie Sanders has done better in previous primaries among those who are more worried about the economy than among those who are less worried. And he’s narrowly won anti-trade voters in contests to date, while losing pro-trade voters to Clinton by a 17-point margin.
Coal workers: The state's depressed coal industry is a key reason for its economic woes. Three in 10 West Virginia Democratic primary voters in preliminary exit poll results say they live in a household with a coal worker. Clinton’s gaffe about creating jobs “because we’re going to put a lot of coal miners and coal companies out of business” makes this a group worth watching as vote results become available.
Race: Whites account for more than nine in 10 West Virginia Democratic primary voters in preliminary exit poll results, far above the 61 percent they’ve averaged across the 2016 Democratic primaries. In previous contests, whites have voted 50-48 percent, Sanders-Clinton, vs. 71-28 percent Clinton-Sanders among nonwhites.
Gender: Sanders has done much better with men than women in previous primaries and it’s helped Clinton tremendously that women have outnumbered men by 58-42 percent overall. Not so in preliminary exit poll results in West Virginia, in which men and women are essentially evenly divided.
Party: Political independents, another group that’s been much better for Sanders in previous races, account for a third of voters in preliminary exit poll results, well above the average to date, 22 percent.
Obama: Only a quarter of Democratic primary voters in West Virginia want the next president to continue Obama’s policies, a strong group for Clinton to date; that’s down from 54 percent on average in previous contests this year. An additional quarter wants more liberal policies, a group that’s voted just as strongly for Sanders, and more than four in 10 want less liberal policies, more than three times more than the average this year, and a group that’s narrowly favored Sanders in past contests.
Qualities: Roughly six in 10 voters in preliminary exit poll results say honesty or empathy are most important to their vote; they’ve been more likely to support Sanders (especially honesty voters) to date. Fewer than four in 10 instead call electability or experience most important, voters among whom Clinton’s dominated. Honesty/empathy voters are outnumbering those focused on experience/electability by a bigger margin than usual in West Virginia.
Vote in November: In one last notable result, about a third of Democratic voters in preliminary exit poll results say that, given a Clinton-Donald Trump or a Sanders-Trump race, they’d vote for Trump. That’s a high level of support for Trump among Democratic primary voters; one reason is that West Virginia Democratic voters are among least liberal so far this year. Fewer than half say they’re liberals, vs. an average of 62 percent in previous Democratic contests.
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