Live: Democratic Primary Exit Poll Analysis

Who turned out in Tuesday's Wisconsin primary and what motivated their votes?

Here are some of our observations of exit poll results from Democrats voting in the primary tonight.

This latest update is based on preliminary exit poll results. Check back for updates.

Emerging Themes

Inspiration vs. electability

A new hearts-vs.-heads question explores competing concerns in the Democratic presidential race: On one hand, voters in today’s Wisconsin primary are more apt to see Bernie Sanders as inspirational; on the other, they’re also more apt to see Hillary Clinton has having the better chance to beat Donald Trump in November. It’s a result that captures the division between the Democratic candidates.

Excitement In contrast to divisions on the GOP side, about three-quarters of Democratic primary voters are “excited” or “optimistic” about the prospect of a Sanders presidency, as are seven in 10 about a Clinton presidency. Excitement, though, is about twice as high for Sanders than for Clinton.

Honesty

Clinton has had problems with views of her honesty and which are apparent today in Wisconsin. Just six in 10 Wisconsin Democratic voters say she’s honest and trustworthy, vs. about nine in 10 who say so about Sanders. That’s among Sanders’ highest honesty ratings in any primary to date, even approaching his rating in his home state of Vermont.

Race

Whites account for more than eight in 10 Wisconsin Democratic primary voters in preliminary exit poll results, well above the 60 percent they’ve averaged across the 2016 primaries. Nonwhites make up fewer than two in 10 voters, including just one in 10 who are blacks – far below their average levels this year, 40 and 26 percent, respectively.

In previous primaries, whites have voted 50-48 Sanders-Clinton, vs. 72-26 percent Clinton-Sanders among nonwhites. Sanders won whites in recent primaries in North Carolina, Missouri, Illinois and Michigan, though he lost them in Ohio, Florida and Mississippi.

Qualities

Roughly six in 10 voters today say honesty or empathy are most important to their vote; such voters have been more likely to support Sanders (especially honesty voters) in races to date.

Fewer, four in four in 10, call electability or experience most important, voters among whom Clinton’s dominated. Combined, honesty/empathy voters have outnumbered experience/electability voters on average in 2016, with an even larger than usual margin in preliminary exit poll results today.

Ideology Two-thirds of voters in Wisconsin say they’re liberals, including a quarter who say they’re “very” liberal, both on pace to break records in Wisconsin Democratic primaries back to 1976. In 2008, only 46 were liberal and 16 percent were very liberal. Sanders has done much better so far among liberals than he has among moderates and conservatives. (Only a quarter of Wisconsin voters say they’re moderates, on pace for a record low and well down from 40 percent in 2008).

Partisanship Mainline Democrats make up seven in 10 Wisconsin voters in these preliminary exit poll results, up from 62 percent in 2008 and on pace for a record in the state. That could provide some help to Clinton, who’s done better with Democrats in primaries to date, while Sanders has prevailed among independents.

Policy fit Fewer than six in 10 voters say Clinton’s views on the issues are about right, vs. nearly two-thirds who say so of Sanders. That’s a flip of the average of previous primaries, where Clinton’s averaged 64 percent, Sanders 55 percent.

Trade Trade was a potent issue for Sanders in his surprise win in Michigan and helped him make Missouri and Illinois agonizingly close, though, Clinton turned things around in Ohio. In Wisconsin, more than four in 10 think trade takes away more American jobs, while fewer than four in 10 think it creates more jobs.

Economics Three-quarters of Democratic primary voters in Wisconsin are worried about the direction of the economy. Nearly four in 10 expect life for the next generation of Americans to be worse than life today, vs. only a third who think it’ll be better. Sanders has done better among those who are worried about the economy in previous primaries.

Realistic policies More voters think Clinton’s policy proposals are realistic than think the same about Sanders’ policies (three-quarters vs. nearly two-thirds), but that gap is smaller than it’s been in previous primaries (76 vs. 57 percent). It’s similar to recent states – Michigan, Missouri and Illinois – where Sanders has fought closely with Clinton.

Commander in chief Despite Clinton’s far more extensive foreign policy resume, about as many think Sanders would be a better commander in chief as say so about Clinton.

Things to watch

Race and Gender: Men have roughly divided between Clinton and Sanders in previous races this year (51-47 percent, while Clinton has been boosted by wide support among women, 63-36 percent. The gap’s especially striking just among whites: 55-44 percent for Clinton among white women, but a 16-point Sanders advantage, 57-41 percent, among white men. It’s a measure worth watching as this evening’s results come in, especially given the comparatively few nonwhite voters in Wisconsin.

Age

Sanders has done famously well among young voters in contests to date, winning 70 percent of voters age 18-29, vs. Clinton’s 73 percent among seniors. At 17 percent so far in 2016, turnout about young voters could end up its highest in Democratic primaries since 1976, up from 14 percent in 2008, 9 percent in 2004 and 8 percent in 2000. They make up a more than one in 10 Wisconsin voters in preliminary results.

Let's block ads! (Why?)

from ABC News: Politics http://ift.tt/1VuLiy0
via IFTTT

Tweet