Live Super Tuesday Republican Exit Poll Analysis

Who turned out in the Super Tuesday GOP primaries and what motivated their votes? We're continuing to pore over exit poll results from primary states voting tonight. Here is our analysis based on preliminary exit poll results. This latest update includes new analysis from Georgia, Virginia and Vermont.

The Big Picture

The most interesting GOP races seem to be shaping up in Texas, Arkansas, Virginia and Vermont; here's a quick look at what we're seeing in those states.

Georgia

A majority of Georgia GOP primary voters said they were looking a political outsider – and six in 10 of them backed Trump. Half also said they’d be satisfied with Trump as the nominee, although slightly more said they’d be satisfied with either Cruz or Rubio.

Seven in 10 said they favor banning non-citizen Muslims from entering the country; fewer, but four in 10, support deporting undocumented immigrants. Trump’s broadly popular in both these signature-issue groups.

A record eight in 10 Georgia GOP voters identified themselves as conservatives, with the most growth coming from those who are “somewhat” conservative, up nine points from 2012 and a key group for Trump. It’s a more competitive race between Cruz and Trump among “very” conservatives, who account for four in 10 voters.

Seven in 10 voters made their decision more than a few days ago – as in previous contests, another strong group Trump.

Virginia

Independents accounted for a third of GOP primary voters in Virginia, and preliminary exit poll results indicate a Trump-Rubio contest in this group. Also, more Virginia voters have a college education than in other states, a better group for Rubio, giving him some running room against Trump, who tends to do better among less-educated voters.

Half of voters said they want an outsider, a strong group for Trump, but Rubio ran well in preliminary exit poll results among the four in 10 who want someone with political experience.

Voters divided between looking for a candidate who “can bring needed change” and one who “shares my values,” – about three in 10 for each – with Trump winning the former group, and values voters splitting between Cruz and Rubio. Fewer than two in 10 wanted someone who “tells it like it is” or who can win in November, with Trump crushing among the former, Rubio among the latter.

Compared with most other states today. fewer GOP primary voters in Virginia want to ban non-U.S. Muslims, deport undocumented immigrants or are angry with the government. That’s an advantage for Rubio.

Among today’s Southern states, strong desire for a candidate who shares your religious beliefs was least important to Virginia voters, just three in 10, a disadvantage for Cruz.

Vermont

Voters were evenly split in preliminary exit poll results between those wanting an outsider and those wanting experience: Kasich won nearly half of the experience group, Trump half of the outsider voters.

Support for Kasich and Trump also was split along the top two selected candidate qualities: a candidate who “shares your values” (a Kasich group) or won who “can bring needed change” (a Trump group). While Trump has consistently done well with the later, Cruz has dominated among values voters elsewhere.

This in part reflects the fact that only six in 10 Vermont voters are conservative, lower than in other contests this year (but still slightly topping the record set in 2008, and up substantially from 2012). There are, especially, comparatively few levels of very conservative voters and white evangelicals, each making up just a quarter of the electorate – Cruz groups in general.

A substantial number of independents turned out – nearly four in 10 GOP voters in preliminary exit poll data – and a third were either moderates or (a few) liberals, more than elsewhere. Both were strong groups for Kasich. Additionally, college graduates turn out in record numbers, accounting for over six in 10 voters, another good group for Kasich.

Texas

Fewer than half of GOP voters – about four in 10 – are looking for a political outsider, fewer than anywhere else. Nearly four in 10 in preliminary exit poll data also say it matters a great deal to them to support a candidate who shares their religious beliefs, and six in 10 are evangelicals. Two-thirds say they’d be satisfied with Ted Cruz as the nominee, a high for him among all states in which we have exit polls – compared with nearly six in 10 for Rubio and less than half for Trump. That said, two-thirds of GOP primary voters in Texas want to build a wall along the entire U.S.-Mexico border, as Trump has suggested.

Arkansas

More than four in 10 voters call themselves very conservative, among the highest of any state so far. And eight in 10 GOP primary voters in Arkansas are evangelicals, tops of any state today.

Emerging Themes

Now here's a summary of where we seeing in the GOP contests across states, grouped by key themes.

Inside Out

Save for Texas and Vermont, at least half of voters in preliminary exit poll results across the Super Tuesday states want the next president to be from outside the political establishment. That compares with about half of voters in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina, and 61 percent in Nevada. Trump’s done very well among “outsider” voters to date, pulling in just fewer than half of them in Iowa, about six in 10 in New Hampshire and South Carolina and seven in 10 in Nevada.

Banning Muslims

One of Trump’s more controversial proposals continues to receive majority support in the GOP electorate. At least six in 10 GOP primary voters today support banning Muslims who are not U.S. citizens from entering the country, peaking at more than three-quarters in Alabama, Arkansas and Tennessee. That compares with 65 and 74 percent in New Hampshire and South Carolina, respectively.

Immigration

On another controversial issue, immigration, anywhere about four in 10 voters in Virginia, Texas and Georgia, peaking at more than half in Alabama, favor deporting undocumented immigrants, as opposed to offering them a route to legal status.

The Spectrum

The record-breaking partisan nature of the 2016 election season continues in these nine states. Other than Massachusetts and Vermont, three-quarters or more in all other states today say they’re conservative, hitting nearly eight in 10 in Alabama, Georgia, Oklahoma and Tennessee.

Evangelicals

Evangelicals account for seven in 10 to eight in 10 voters in most Southern states today, except for Texas (six in 10), Virginia (just over half); it’s about a quarter in Massachusetts and Vermont alike. They’ve been one of Ted Cruz’s best groups so far, though Trump won among evangelicals in in Nevada and ran competitively among them in New Hampshire and South Carolina.

Faith

More than four in 10 in most Southern states say it matters a great deal to them that a candidate shares their religious beliefs, falling three in 10 in Virginia.

Attributes

As previously, shared values is at the top or near the top of the list of candidate attributes in today’s states (picked by numbers ranging from three in 10 to nearly half), followed closely in most states by someone who can bring “needed change” (a quarter to nearly four in 10) and by someone who “tells it like it is” (about two in 10 in most states); last on the list is electability in November (about one in seven). Cruz has done well in previous contests among values voters, Cruz among electability voters, while Trump’s won both those focused on change and on a candidate who “tells it like it is.” Values voters are especially prominent in Oklahoma, while change voters are most prominent in Georgia and Virginia.

Satisfaction

With three clear leaders headed into Super Tuesday’s contests, the question of rallying around the eventual nominee is becoming more pressing. Here it really depends on the state. More would be satisfied with Trump in Alabama; with Rubio in Virginia; and with Cruz in Texas. Trump and Rubio do about equally well on this question in Tennessee; Cruz and Rubio in Arkansas; with little difference between the candidates in Georgia.

Anger/worry

Many GOP primary voters also are angry with the government in Washington, D.C., ranging from a third in Massachusetts to half in Texas, and nearly all of them are at least dissatisfied.

Stay Tuned! More Great Analysis Coming Soon

Republicans are voting today in primaries in Georgia, Oklahoma, Vermont, Virginia, Alabama, Tennessee, Massachusetts, Arkansas and Texas. We'll have exit poll data from each of those states.

There also will be GOP caucuses today in Minnesota and Alaska but there will not be polls conducted in those states.

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