Rand Paul Down, Elizabeth Warren Up In New Hampshire Poll

Rand Paul's numbers take a curious nosedive in the Granite State.

Sen. Rand Paul, R-Ky., speaks a GOP breakfast in Manchester, N.H. Paul's poll numbers have dropped in precipitously in the state.

Rand Paul's numbers have taken a nose-dive in the Granite State.

It may just be an anomaly, or an early warning sign of trouble ahead as his positions garner more scrutiny.

[READ: New Hampshire Senate Candidates in Homestretch Slugfest]

For much of the last year, the Kentucky senator has been atop the hypothetical Republican field in New Hampshire, the state holding the first primary in the 2016 presidential contest.

But in the latest University of New Hampshire-WMUR poll, Paul's support dropped more precipitously than any other contender.

In July, he registered 14 percent, which put him in second place.

Chris Christie 19%Rand Paul 14%Jeb Bush 11%

Paul lost 7 points in three months, falling to just 7 percent in the latest October survey, good enough for fourth.

Jeb Bush 15%Chris Christie 12%Mike Huckabee 9%Rand Paul 7%

It appears Jeb Bush has benefited from a boomlet around news he's more serious about 2016 than previously thought. But it's Paul's number that pops off the page here, even though it's just a survey of 275 likely primary voters.

'I wouldn't put much stock in the early GOP field polls in New Hampshire - no ones thinking about the primary yet,' says Andrew Smith, director of the poll.

So why even bother conducting the survey?

[ALSO: Rand Paul's Populist Turn in New Hampshire]

'Research. And to remind the media that most people don't pay attention to politics most of the time,' he says.

On the Democratic side in New Hampshire, Hillary Clinton enjoys a gaping 40-point lead over her nearest opponent.

But her nearest opponent is no longer Vice President Joe Biden.

In the July survey, it was Clinton over Biden.

Hillary Clinton 59%Joe Biden 14%Elizabeth Warren 8%

But Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., -- who vows she's not running - now tops Biden, soaring 10 points in three months.

Hillary Clinton 58%Elizabeth Warren 18%Joe Biden 3%

The numbers underline two truths: That Biden would keep no Democrat out of the race if he ran in the absence of a Clinton candidacy. Secondly, Warren could cause Clinton some serious trouble, but only if she wants to, which it appears she doesn't.

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