TOPEKA, Kan. - The Senate race in Kansas is suddenly the most scrutinized contest in the country. Republicans are scrambling to protect a longtime incumbent. Bob Dole is back on the campaign trail. The state's Democrats have no candidate and are trying to say as little about that as possible. And a 45-year-old investor from suburban Kansas City may hold the key to control of the Senate next January.
At the beginning of the year, no one thought that Kansas - which has sent only Republicans to the Senate since 1938 - would be critical in determining the balance of the Senate. But a Kansas Supreme Court ruling on Thursday that allowed the Democratic nominee to withdraw his name from the ballot has shattered the conventional thinking.
An example of the new reality: Democrats are celebrating the ruling. Their candidate may be off the ballot, but his departure benefits the investor, Greg Orman, who is running as an independent, and hurts the longtime Republican incumbent, Senator Pat Roberts, who had already been tripped up in his expected waltz to re-election.
A major factor in Mr. Roberts' troubles has been the unexpected rise of Mr. Orman, who has been coy about his intentions if he should be elected, refusing to say if he would caucus with Democrats or Republicans. But his election has the potential of keeping the Senate out of Republican hands in the case of a close split in November.
Even before the ruling on Thursday, Mr. Roberts, who was first elected to the House in 1980 and is seeking his fourth term in the Senate, had been trailing in the polls. With the Democratic candidate, Chad Taylor, not included in surveys, Mr. Roberts' deficit is even larger.
The role of Mr. Dole, the former senator from Kansas, in the race illustrates the high stakes, with party leaders urging him, now 91, to come out of retirement on behalf of the campaign. Mr. Dole was to tape a television commercial for Mr. Roberts on Friday and is joining the senator for a rally on Monday night in Dodge City, Kan., the Old West town that Mr. Roberts lists as his official residence but where he does not have a home of his own.
Mr. Dole, a native of Russell, Kan., said in an interview that he had grown increasingly nervous about Mr. Roberts' prospects and had pleaded with Republican ' super PACs ' to shore up the Roberts campaign. He also has been seeking help from Scott Reed, his one-time presidential campaign manager, who is now the U.S. Chamber of Commerce's top political strategist, and had suggested bringing in Mitt Romney to campaign for Mr. Roberts. The senator's strategists had a better idea: call out Mr. Dole.
'I think it's going to be quite a close race,' Mr. Dole said.
Mr. Orman, a former McKinsey consultant who started his own venture capital fund and has financed his own campaign in part, may find his wealth becoming an issue now that he is the Republican's sole focus. Republicans are already scouring his investments, although the campaign manager that the national Republican Party imposed on Mr. Roberts this month worried that there was not enough time to go through them all.
Mr. Roberts' campaign is already seeking to make an issue of Mr. Orman's business relationship with Rajat Gupta, a former Goldman Sachs executive. Mr. Gupta is now in federal prison after being convicted of insider trading, but he and Mr. Orman are both still invested in a wealth management fund.
'I don't think having dealings with somebody who is in prison is going to play well in Kansas,' said Corry Bliss, a Roberts aide.
Mr. Orman also made some of his backers cringe this week when he told reporters that his investment with Mr. Gupta was 'very modest' because it was under $50,000. (The median income in Kansas is just over $51,000.)
On issues, Mr. Orman has offered a series of noncommittal answers on topics like the Keystone XL Pipeline, same-sex marriage and the minimum wage. Republicans are trying to gain traction on the public stands that Mr. Orman has taken: He supports a pathway to citizenship for illegal immigrants and tells voters that the Affordable Care Act will not be repealed.
As Mr. Orman has gained ground in polls, Mr. Roberts has called in help from across the state. Next week, Freedom Partners, a super PAC with ties to Wichita-based Koch Industries, is starting a major advertising assault against Mr. Orman that will link him to national Democrats. The group is spending about $500,000 in the first two weeks in a state with relatively inexpensive media markets, said James Davis, a spokesman for the group.
And a group of Republicans close to the state's other senator, Jerry Moran, said Friday they were trying to raise money for television commercials from the Visionary Leaders Fund.
National Democrats have gone to great lengths to stay out of the race. They do not want to make it easier for Republicans to label Mr. Orman as the de facto Democratic nominee in a conservative-leaning state. Democrats in Kansas have also gone to great lengths to deny Mr. Orman as one of their own, even though he briefly sought the party's nomination to take on Mr. Roberts in 2008.
But senior Kansas Democrats, including the former two-term governor John Carlin, played a role in persuading their nominee, Mr. Taylor, to quit so that it would be easier to defeat Mr. Roberts.
Their message to Mr. Taylor, who had raised little money, was that he could have a bright future in the party if he did not play the spoiler in the race.
Mr. Taylor himself has not said why he decided to drop out of the race just before the deadline to withdraw, and he avoided reporters at the state court hearings.
'There are a lot of voters, Republicans, unaffiliateds, and Democrats, who are going to be inclined to support somebody who is not part of the establishment,' said Paul Davis, the Democratic nominee for governor, who in a tight race against Gov. Sam Brownback. But Mr. Davis hastened to add that he had no plans to endorse Mr. Orman.
Would he vote or Mr. Orman? 'Well, we'll see,' Mr. Davis said with a smile.
Well-funded Democratic super PACs have also been just as cagey about their intentions. And Mr. Orman has declined to say whether he would accept such spending on his behalf.
Mr. Orman has said that he would release more information about his assets this week and pledged to keep writing checks for his campaign, but has declined to say if he had set any limit about how much he would spend.
For now, most Kansans seem to know only that Mr. Orman is an independent. On Thursday night, he was not in handshaking, baby-kissing campaign mode as he strolled to a Kansas State University football game, talking to only those who recognized him.
Scott Millette, 54, of Clay Center, Kan., called Mr. Roberts a 'Washington insider.' But in a pointed tone, he also demanded to know which caucus Mr. Orman would join if elected.
Mr. Orman would not budge.
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